Investing Through Uncertainty: The Only Constant in Markets

Investing Through Uncertainty: The Only Constant in Markets

If there’s one thing markets have taught us in recent years, it’s this: the only certainty is uncertainty.
Over the last five years, investors have faced a pandemic, inflation spiking to 9%, wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, and rapid swings in monetary policy. And yet, despite these shocks, both the Dow Jones and the S&P 500 delivered above-average returns .

It’s tempting to believe that the next crisis, the next headline, or the next election will derail the market permanently. But history tells a different story: volatility comes and goes, while long-term returns persist.
When uncertainty dominates the headlines, many investors react emotionally — selling in fear or chasing the latest “safe” trend. But reacting to every surprise undermines the very principle of having an investment plan. As one of our letters put it: if random events can alter your policy, you never really had a policy to begin with .

Market corrections, wars, tariffs, pandemics — none of these are new. And while the details change, the long-term lesson is the same: disciplined investors, who stay focused on fundamentals and remain invested, tend to benefit when the dust settles.

Uncertainty is not a bug in the system — it is the system. The challenge for investors isn’t predicting every twist and turn, but building a strategy that can weather them. That’s how wealth is created and preserved across decades, not days.

At William Allan, we believe uncertainty also highlights the value of our approach — investing directly in individual companies rather than through mutual funds or pooled products. By owning businesses outright, we avoid the extra layers of cost that funds often carry, and we retain full control over portfolio construction. Most importantly, it allows us to be selective: to invest in companies at attractive valuations, instead of accepting the entire basket that comes with a fund.

Nothing contained herein this letter should be considered investment advice, research or an invitation to buy or sell any securities