Investing Through Uncertainty: The Only Constant in Markets

Written by the William Allan team · Published 2025-09-10

If there’s one thing markets have taught us in recent years, it’s this: the only certainty is uncertainty.

Over the last five years, investors have faced a pandemic, inflation spiking to 9%, wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, and rapid swings in monetary policy. These events tested assumptions about inflation, liquidity, and the risks investors could bear.

It’s tempting to believe that the next crisis, the next headline, or the next election will derail the market permanently. History includes recoveries as well as long periods of disappointing returns. A long horizon does not assure a positive result.

When uncertainty dominates the headlines, many investors react emotionally — selling in fear or chasing the latest “safe” trend. A plan can help distinguish a passing headline from an event that materially changes your circumstances or the investment case.

Market corrections, wars, tariffs, pandemics — none of these are new. And while the details change, the long-term lesson is the same: investment decisions need to account for fundamentals, liquidity, and the possibility that a recovery takes longer than expected or never reaches a particular holding.

Uncertainty is not a bug in the system — it is the system. The challenge for investors isn’t predicting every twist and turn, but building a strategy that can weather them. That can support decisions across decades, while leaving room to adjust when the facts change.

William Allan may use individual companies as well as funds depending on a client's circumstances. Direct ownership can provide position-level control, but it also introduces company-specific risk, concentration, trading costs, and the possibility that valuation judgments are wrong. Funds can provide broad diversification and operational efficiency while carrying their own expenses and limitations. Neither structure assures better performance or lower total cost.

Historical context: BLS June 2022 CPI release. Investment background: SEC stock-investing risks.

This commentary is for informational purposes only and is not investment, tax, or legal advice. All investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal, and past performance does not guarantee future results.